In an economic context marked by uncertainty, CAP (the French Federation of Cardboard and Stationery*) conducted, with the support of the French Confederation of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (CPME), of which it is a member, a business climate survey among its member companies**. Carried out online from May 5 to 22, this study is based on responses from 30 executives who are members of this Federation. The conclusion is clear: while the crisis has not yet fully impacted companies in the sector, the situation will deteriorate sharply in the second half of the year.
The first warning sign: business leaders’ confidence is collapsing. In the first half of the year, 40% of the executives surveyed observed a deterioration in their company’s overall situation. The outlook for the second half of the year offers no sign of improvement: revenue remains on a downward trend, cash flow is under significant pressure, and staff continue to shrink.
Second warning sign: the crisis in the Middle East is having a major impact. For 97% of business leaders, their operations have been directly affected by this crisis. And for 70% of them, this conflict has resulted in a 5% to 20% increase in raw material costs. The pressure is even greater on fuel: one in two executives reports a price increase exceeding 20%.
Third warning sign: a disrupted Supply Chain, with sometimes severe consequences. Directly exposed to Supply Chain challenges, one in two executives believes they have experienced disruptions that have had a tangible impact on their operations. And 3% have experienced Supply Chain disruptions that led to a partial or total shutdown of their business.
However, their ability to react is real. Faced with the consequences of the crisis, 70% of the companies surveyed have implemented or are considering implementing at least one concrete measure. Executives plan to combine consolidation measures to limit immediate risks (postponement or cancellation of planned investments, renegotiation of suppliers’ contracts) and repositioning measures (prospecting for new markets, diversification of the suppliers base) to prepare for future growth.
In conclusion, according to CAP, “the rise in raw material supply costs and the volatility of energy prices are weighing heavily on the economic stability of companies in the sector. These factors place companies in a vulnerable position, with no room to absorb a shock.”
V. L.
(*) CAP represents an industrial sector comprised of 300 companies (including 120 members), 500 production sites, and 17,000 employees. In 2024, companies in these sectors generated €4.4 billion in revenue.
(**) This survey is based on responses from 30 executives of member companies. The results presented are from voluntary declarations.
Photo/Henry
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